April 22, 2012

NFL Draft Series: Perspective

     The NFL Draft is almost upon us, so this Draft-related post actually seems relevant (as opposed to the last one).  Today I heard Todd McShay say that in 5 years, Ryan Tannehill will be a top-10 quarterback in the NFL.  Seriously?  Ryan Tannehill?  The alleged third best quarterback in the Draft even though I had no idea who he was until the Draft season started?

     I know the Draft is when we feel like all the players are going to be great, but it's important to have some perspective here.  In the list of the 10 highest-rated passers last year with 100 or more attempts, 6 different draft classes were represented.  2004 had four of the quarterbacks (Eli, Roethlisberger, Schaub, and Romo, who wasn't actually drafted but was a rookie in '04).  2005 had two of the quarterbacks (Rodgers and Alex Smith).  The other four were from 2000, 2001, 2008, and 2009.

     So given that McShay thinks Tannehill will be a top-10 passer in 2017, he must think one of the following is true: 
  • Tannehill is the best quarterback in this year's Draft.
  • Tannehill is a close second to either Luck or Griffin
  • The 2012 draft class is as deep at quarterback as 2004 was.
     I'm pretty sure if you asked McShay to classify these three statements as true or false, he would say all of them are false.  As would I.  If you told me Andrew Luck would be a top-10 passer in five years, I'd probably agree.  If you told me Robert Griffin III would be a top-10 passer in five years, I'd be hesitant but I'd go along with it.  But Ryan Tannehill?  No way.  Calm down with the Draft hype there, Mr. McShay.

(By the way, yes, I did capitalize "Draft" each time just to annoy you.  Then I decided to further that annoyance but not capitalizing "draft class", because it really is a completely different thing.  I hope it bothered you as much as I wanted it to.)

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