June 19, 2012

NBA Finals Predictions

     If there's one thing this blog needs, it's more predictions.  So far I'm 1-1 at predicting games (correctly picked the Broncos over the Steelers, and incorrectly picked LSU over Alabama in the NCAA championship).  Let's see if I can improve that record a bit.

     It seems to me that the key to Miami Heat games late in a playoff series has been how important the game is to them.  When it's not important, they tend to be less productive.  When the game is crucial, they shift into another gear and become pretty much unstoppable.  With that in mind...

Game 4:  Thunder over Heat, 106-99

     Going up 3-1 isn't a necessity, it's a luxury.  While letting the series get tied with only one home game out of the last three isn't ideal, I don't think the Heat are too worried about tonight.

Game 5:  Heat over Thunder, 91-86

     Plain and simple, the Heat cannot expect to win two straight games in OKC.  So they'll find a way to win Game 5 so they only need one road win.

Game 6:  Thunder over Heat, 95-90

     Obviously the Heat don't want to lose this one, but it'll be a much bigger game for the Thunder, and that should get them to a Game 7.

Game 7:  Heat over Thunder, 86-81

     It'll be ugly on both sides, but LeBron and Bosh will get their first championship.  I don't expect the perfect LeBron game-winner type of scenario everyone demands to see, but holding on to a 5-point lead throughout the 4th quarter is just as respectable.

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