June 15, 2012

The U.S. Open Owes Me Some Carnage

     After last year's U.S. Open, I remarked that because Rory McIlroy won the tournament at 16-under-par even though the course is always set up for the winner to be at par, I wanted this year's Open winner to be at 16-over-par.  I will back off on that a little.  Give me +8.  Because second place was at -8 last year, and the rest of the pack was very close behind.  Let's face it, the 2011 U.S. Open was a joke.  McIlroy's win after falling apart in the Masters was a nice story, but the U.S. Open is the one tournament every year when we look forward to seeing pro golfers get humiliated, and the '11 Open didn't come close to that.  I think we golf fans deserve to get two years worth of bad golf this time around.

     Using the golf simulator I made a few months ago, I tried to see how bad this Open will turn out if the course continues to be as difficult as it was on Thursday.  I used the average score of the first round to estimate the difficulty of the course, and then I simulated rounds until one popped up that closely resembled the real-life one.  After that I ran through the remainder of the tournament ten times, and ended up with an average winning score of +2.  Not bad, but not good enough to pay me back for last year. 

     This isn't just about last year.  In the last 33 U.S. Open tournaments, only two winners have finished over par.  That number should be around 15.  While I respect the USGA for getting it as close as they do, I feel like they still have more work to do.  Really dry out those greens.  Grow the rough out even more.  Dig some more bunkers.  It doesn't matter.  Just get me some winners with positive scores, because this tournament is the only place I can get it.


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